Champions League, Group-E Prediction: Liverpool, Napoli, Red Bull can qualify

UEFA Champions League - Group E - Prediction

Champions League - Group e - Prediction-2 — UEFA Champions League - Group E - Prediction

In Group E of UEFA Champions League, Liverpool, Napoli, Red Bull Salzburg and Genk competed against each other. With one match pending for each of the team, it is evident that only Liverpool, Napoli and Red Bull Salzburg are in contest and while Genk is no more Champion league contention.

Points Table

Following table shows Group E situation after each team have played five matches.

Prediction for Group E

Following table provide points tally after all matches been played in Group E, and shows Group E winners considering all scenarios.

How the table to be interpreted

There might be 9 exhaustive situation after last two matches are played.
Considering all scenario, points table are computed
Two different concepts are considered. First one involving ‘Bet Belief’, which considers Betting odds for last two matches for probability of win/draw/loss. Second one, considers ‘equal chances’, i.e. there is equal chances for a team to win(33.33%), or draw(33.33%) or loss (33.33%). The second one is far from practical as it does not consider special weightage for a stronger team.

Qualification Chances

Group E Winners	Bet Belief	Equal Chances
Liverpool and Napoli	75%	66.67%
Napoli and Red Bull	23%	22.22%
Liverpool and Red Bull	2%	11.11%

*Note- Qualification Rules are to be applied to break ties between Chelsea and Valencia, if Situation 7 or Situation 8 arises. Goal Difference will break the deadlock in these cases.

Conclusions

Liverpool are likely to qualify, have 78% chance for qualification as per “Bet Belief”
Napoli have 98% chances to qualify.
Defending champion Liverpool can still be eliminated in case, turn out from last two matches are like Situation 7 or Situation 8. Which is having 23% probability (either of these situation to happen) as per Bet Belief
Red Bull have 25% chances to qualify.
In Situation 9 will see, Napoli is eliminated. But it is most unlikely to happen with 2% probability.

Qualification Rules

If two or more teams are equal on points, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:

Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head results).
Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head goal difference).
Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head goals scored).
Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head away goals).
Superior goal difference from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of away goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of away wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Lower number of disciplinary points received from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher UEFA Club Coefficient.