The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:
Points obtained in all group matches:
Win: 3 points;
Draw: 1 point;
Loss: 0 points;
Goal Difference after all group matches;
Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match):
Yellow card: −1 point;
Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
Direct red card: −4 points;
Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
Drawing of lots.
What happen during each scenarios
Scenario
Qualifiers
% Chances/Comments
1
Poland, Saudi Arabia
3%
2
Poland, Saudi Arabia
5%
3
Argentina, Saudi Arabia
13%
4
Poland, Saudi Arabia
3%
5
Poland, Argentina/Saudi Arabia
5%
6
Argentina, Poland/Saudi Arabia
14%
7
Poland, Mexico
8%
8
Poland, Argentina/Mexico
13%
9
Argentina, Poland/Mexico
37%
Assumption
When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.
Conclusion
All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
Poland have 63% chances for qualifying into next round.
Saudi Arabia have 33% chances for qualifying into next round.
Argentina have 74% chances for qualifying into next round.
Mexico have 30% chances for qualifying into next round.
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