Premier League 2020-21, Champions League and Europa League qualifications – Prediction

Premier League, 2020-21, will conclude with Matchday 38 on Sunday. These matches will decide Champions League and Europa League qualifications. This article will try to predict the outcomes of the matches, and hence the teams and their qualification chances.

Liverpool-Chelsea-Leicester-Tottenham-West Ham-Premier League

Premier League is poised for a blockbuster end as Matchday 38 will decide the participant for European Competitions (UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League) as well as, it will have a bit impact on the relegation situation.

Here, we will try to predict the chances for the teams who are in contention for these qualification.

Premier League Table 2020-21 after Matchday 37

1Manchester City (C, Q)*37266784683
2Manchester United (Q)*37206712871
3Chelsea (X)**37198572367
4Liverpool (X)**37199662466
5Leicester City (X)**372011662066
6West Ham United (?)***371811591262
7Tottenham Hotspur (?)***371712642159
10Leeds United37171559656
Premier League Table 2020-21 after Matchday 37 – Top half
* Manchester City are Premier League Champions for 2020-21 season and hence, qualified for UCL. Similarly Manchester United will finish second irrespective of Matchday 38 outcomes.
** Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City will finish in next three positions, depending on Matchday 38 outcomes.
*** Matchday 38 will also decide the sixth team. West Ham and Tottenham are fighting for this spot.

Betting Odds for Match Results

Match 1ChelseaAston Villa 1.454.606.50
Match 2LiverpoolCrystal Palace1.148.5015.00
Match 3Leicester CityTottenham2.204.003.30
Match 4West HamSouthampton1.654.005.00
Betting Odds from Bet365

Percentage of chances for Match Results

Match 1ChelseaAston Villa 65.0120.4914.50
Match 2LiverpoolCrystal Palace82.6411.086.28
Match 3Leicester CityTottenham45.1124.8130.08
Match 4West HamSouthampton57.3923.6718.94
Percentage of chances of Match Outcomes

Prediction for Champions League and Europa League qualifications – Premier League 2020-21

  1. Manchester City and Manchester United have already qualified for UEFA Champions League next Season
  2. Next two spots for Champions League, are for teams which end up holding 3rd and 4th spot in Premier League table. Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City are in contention for UCL qualification (First four teams in the table qualify for Champions League)
  3. One of the teams from “Second Point” will finish fifth in Premier League table, and hence qualify for UEFA Europa League.
  4. One of West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur will finish sixth to claim the second spot for UEFA Europa League. (Fifth and Sixth in the table qualify for Europa League).
  5. Chelsea have 86% chances to finish in top four, so there are 14% chances that they will end up in Europa League.
  6. Similary, Liverpool have 91% chances to finish in top four, so there are 9% chances that they will end up in Europa League. This is little awkward, as Reds are places below Chelsea currently. But this chances is because of their better odds against Crystal Palace on Matchday 38.
  7. Leicester City have 23% chances to finish in top four, so there are 77% chances that they will end up in Europa League.
  8. Tottenham Hotspur have very slim chances to qualify, which is 5%. Otherwise, West Ham United are qualifying for Europa League as sixth team in EPL table. Hammers have 95% chances to qualify.

Four matches – 81 Exhaustive Scenarios – Points Table – Percentage Chances

Match 1*Match 2*Match 3*Match 4*Blues**Reds**Foxes**Hammers**Spurs**UCL***UEL***%Chances
ChelseaLiverpoolLeicesterWest Ham7069696559Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers13.91
ChelseaLiverpoolLeicesterDraw7069696359Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers5.74
ChelseaLiverpoolLeicesterSouthampton7069696259Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers4.59
ChelseaLiverpoolDrawWest Ham7069676560Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers7.65
ChelseaLiverpoolDrawDraw7069676360Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers3.15
ChelseaLiverpoolDrawSouthampton7069676260Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers2.52
ChelseaLiverpoolTottenhamWest Ham7069666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers9.27
ChelseaLiverpoolTottenhamDraw7069666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers3.83
ChelseaLiverpoolTottenhamSouthampton7069666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs3.06
ChelseaDrawLeicesterWest Ham7067696559Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers1.86
ChelseaDrawLeicesterDraw7067696359Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.77
ChelseaDrawLeicesterSouthampton7067696259Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.62
ChelseaDrawDrawWest Ham7067676560Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers1.03
ChelseaDrawDrawDraw7067696259Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.42
ChelseaDrawDrawSouthampton7067676260Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.34
ChelseaDrawTottenhamWest Ham7067666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers1.24
ChelseaDrawTottenhamDraw7067666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.51
ChelseaDrawTottenhamSouthampton7067666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs0.41
ChelseaCPLeicesterWest Ham7066696559Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers1.06
ChelseaCPLeicesterDraw7066696359Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.44
ChelseaCPLeicesterSouthampton7066696259Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.35
ChelseaCPDrawWest Ham7066676560Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.58
ChelseaCPDrawDraw7066676360Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.24
ChelseaCPDrawSouthampton7066676260Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.19
ChelseaCPTottenhamWest Ham7066666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.70
ChelseaCPTottenhamDraw7066666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.29
ChelseaCPTottenhamSouthampton7066666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs0.23
DrawLiverpoolLeicesterWest Ham6869696559Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers4.38
DrawLiverpoolLeicesterDraw6869696359Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers1.81
DrawLiverpoolLeicesterSouthampton6869696259Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers1.45
DrawLiverpoolDrawWest Ham6869676560Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers2.41
DrawLiverpoolDrawDraw6869676360Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.99
DrawLiverpoolDrawSouthampton6869676260Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.80
DrawLiverpoolTottenhamWest Ham6869666562Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers2.92
DrawLiverpoolTottenhamDraw6869666362Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers1.21
DrawLiverpoolTottenhamSouthampton6869666262Reds, BluesFoxes, Spurs0.96
DrawDrawLeicesterWest Ham6867696559Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.59
DrawDrawLeicesterDraw6867696359Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.24
DrawDrawLeicesterSouthampton6867696259Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.19
DrawDrawDrawWest Ham6867676560Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.32
DrawDrawDrawDraw6867676360Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.13
DrawDrawDrawSouthampton6867676260Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.11
DrawDrawTottenhamWest Ham6867666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.39
DrawDrawTottenhamDraw6867666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.16
DrawDrawTottenhamSouthampton6867666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs0.13
DrawCPLeicesterWest Ham6866696559Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.33
DrawCPLeicesterDraw6866696359Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.14
DrawCPLeicesterSouthampton6866696259Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.11
DrawCPDrawWest Ham6866676560Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.18
DrawCPDrawDraw6866676360Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.08
DrawCPDrawSouthampton6866676260Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.06
DrawCPTottenhamWest Ham6866666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.22
DrawCPTottenhamDraw6866666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.09
DrawCPTottenhamSouthampton6866666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs0.07
Aston VillaLiverpoolLeicesterWest Ham6769696559Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers3.10
Aston VillaLiverpoolLeicesterDraw6769696359Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers1.28
Aston VillaLiverpoolLeicesterSouthampton6769696259Reds, FoxesBlues, Hammers1.02
Aston VillaLiverpoolDrawWest Ham6769676560Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers1.71
Aston VillaLiverpoolDrawDraw6769676360Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.70
Aston VillaLiverpoolDrawSouthampton6769676260Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.56
Aston VillaLiverpoolTottenhamWest Ham6769666562Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers2.07
Aston VillaLiverpoolTottenhamDraw6769666362Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.85
Aston VillaLiverpoolTottenhamSouthampton6769666262Reds, BluesFoxes, Spurs0.68
Aston VillaDrawLeicesterWest Ham6767696559Foxes, RedsBlues, Hammers0.42
Aston VillaDrawLeicesterDraw6767696359Foxes, RedsBlues, Hammers0.17
Aston VillaDrawLeicesterSouthampton6767696259Foxes, RedsBlues, Hammers0.14
Aston VillaDrawDrawWest Ham6767676560Reds, Blues/FoxesFoxes/Blues, Hammers0.23
Aston VillaDrawDrawDraw6767676360Reds, Blues/FoxesFoxes/Blues, Hammers0.09
Aston VillaDrawDrawSouthampton6767676260Reds, Blues/FoxesFoxes/Blues, Hammers0.08
Aston VillaDrawTottenhamWest Ham6767666562Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.28
Aston VillaDrawTottenhamDraw6767666362Reds, BluesFoxes, Hammers0.11
Aston VillaDrawTottenhamSouthampton6767666262Reds, BluesFoxes, Spurs0.09
Aston VillaCPLeicesterWest Ham6766696559Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.24
Aston VillaCPLeicesterDraw6766696359Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.10
Aston VillaCPLeicesterSouthampton6766696259Foxes, BluesReds, Hammers0.08
Aston VillaCPDrawWest Ham6766676560Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.13
Aston VillaCPDrawDraw6766676360Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.05
Aston VillaCPDrawSouthampton6766676260Blues, FoxesReds, Hammers0.04
Aston VillaCPTottenhamWest Ham6766666562Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.16
Aston VillaCPTottenhamDraw6766666362Blues, RedsFoxes, Hammers0.06
Aston VillaCPTottenhamSouthampton6766666262Blues, RedsFoxes, Spurs0.05
* Winner of Match 1, Match 2, Match 3, Match 4

** Points that Teams Chelsea (Blues), Liverpool (Reds), Leicester City (Foxes), West Ham United (Hammer) and Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) will end up in the Premier League table. 81 rows in the table indicates all of 81 different set of outcomes and the final points for respective teams in Premier League.

*** UCL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Champions League after finishing the season with 3rd and 4th position in the table. UEL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Europa League after finishing the season with 5th and 6th position in the table.

"%Chances" are providing Chances of outcomes for all exhaustive 81 scenarios.