The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:
Points obtained in all group matches:
Win: 3 points;
Draw: 1 point;
Loss: 0 points;
Goal Difference after all group matches;
Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match):
Yellow card: −1 point;
Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
Direct red card: −4 points;
Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
Drawing of lots.
What happen during each scenarios
Scenario
Qualifiers
% Chances/Comments
1
Japan, Costa Rica
>0% (very slim chances though possible)
2
Spain, Costa Rica
1%
3
Spain, Costa Rica
3%
4
Japan, Spain/Costa Rica
1%
5
Spain, Japan/Costa Rica
2%
6
Spain, Costa Rica
6%
7
Japan, Spain/Germany
10%
8
Spain, Japan/Germany
18%
9
Spain, Germany
58%
Assumption
When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.
Conclusion
All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
Japan have 22% chances for qualifying into next round.
Costa Rica have 12% chances for qualifying into next round.
Spain have 93% chances for qualifying into next round.
Germany have 73% chances for qualifying into next round.
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