The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:
Points obtained in all group matches:
Win: 3 points;
Draw: 1 point;
Loss: 0 points;
Goal Difference after all group matches;
Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match):
Yellow card: −1 point;
Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
Direct red card: −4 points;
Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
Drawing of lots.
What happen during each scenarios
Scenario
Qualifiers
% Chances/Comments
1
Brazil, Serbia/Cameroon
3%
2
Brazil, Switzerland/Cameroon
2%
3
Brazil, Switzerland
3%
4
Brazil, Serbia
6%
5
Brazil, Switzerland
5%
6
Brazil, Switzerland
5%
7
Brazil, Serbia
29%
8
Brazil, Switzerland
22%
9
Brazil, Switzerland
25%
Assumption
When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.
Conclusion
All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
Brazil have already qualified (100%).
Cameroon have very slim chances (2%).
Switzerland have 61% chances for qualifying into next round.
Serbia have 37% chances for qualifying into next round.
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