Prediction – Group D, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Kylian Mbappe of France against Switzerland
Kylian Mbappe of France against Switzerland

Table – Group D

 PlayedWinDrawLossGFGAGDPoints
France22006246
Australia210124−23
Tunisia201101−11
Denmark201112−11

Last Two Matches

Match 1
TunisiaFrance
Match 2
AustraliaDenmark

Tunisia vs France – Odds and Probabilities

Tunisia to winDrawFrance to win
Odds84.21.44
Probability (%) 122366

Preview

Australia vs Denmark – Odds and Probabilities

Australia to winDrawDenmark to win
Odds7.54.21.5
Probability (%) 132364

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group D matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

  1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
    • Win: 3 points;
    • Draw: 1 point;
    • Loss: 0 points;
  2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
  3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
  4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
  5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
  6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
  7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
    • Yellow card: −1 point;
    • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
    • Direct red card: −4 points;
    • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
  8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

ScenarioQualifiers% Chances/Comments
1France, Australia2%
2France, Australia3%
3France, Australia9%
4France, Australia/Tunisia3%
5France, Australia5% 
6France, Australia14%
7France, Denmark/Tunisia8%
8France, Denmark15%
9France, Denmark40% 

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

  • All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
  • France have already qualified (100%).
  • Australia have 35% chances for qualifying into next round.
  • Denmark have 59% chances for qualifying into next round.
  • Tunisia have 6% chances for qualifying into next round.