Prediction – Group C, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group C

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
Poland	2	1	1	0	2	0	2	4
Argentina	2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3
Saudi Arabia	2	1	0	1	2	3	−1	3
Mexico	2	0	1	1	0	2	−2	1

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Poland	Argentina

Match 2
Saudi Arabia	Mexico

Poland vs Argentina – Odds and Probabilities

	Poland to win	Draw	Argentina to win
Odds	7	4.2	1.5
Probability (%)	14	23	64

Previews

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico – Odds and Probabilities

	Saudi Arabia to win	Draw	Mexico to win
Odds	4.75	4.2	1.66
Probability (%)	20	23	57

Previews

9 Scenarios from last two Group C matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Poland, Saudi Arabia	3%
2	Poland, Saudi Arabia	5%
3	Argentina, Saudi Arabia	13%
4	Poland, Saudi Arabia	3%
5	Poland, Argentina/Saudi Arabia	5%
6	Argentina, Poland/Saudi Arabia	14%
7	Poland, Mexico	8%
8	Poland, Argentina/Mexico	13%
9	Argentina, Poland/Mexico	37%

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

• All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
• Poland have 63% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Saudi Arabia have 33% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Argentina have 74% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Mexico have 30% chances for qualifying into next round.