Prediction – Group D, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group D

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
France	2	2	0	0	6	2	4	6
Australia	2	1	0	1	2	4	−2	3
Tunisia	2	0	1	1	0	1	−1	1
Denmark	2	0	1	1	1	2	−1	1

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Tunisia	France

Match 2
Australia	Denmark

Tunisia vs France – Odds and Probabilities

	Tunisia to win	Draw	France to win
Odds	8	4.2	1.44
Probability (%)	12	23	66

Preview

Australia vs Denmark – Odds and Probabilities

	Australia to win	Draw	Denmark to win
Odds	7.5	4.2	1.5
Probability (%)	13	23	64

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group D matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	France, Australia	2%
2	France, Australia	3%
3	France, Australia	9%
4	France, Australia/Tunisia	3%
5	France, Australia	5%
6	France, Australia	14%
7	France, Denmark/Tunisia	8%
8	France, Denmark	15%
9	France, Denmark	40%

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

• All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
• France have already qualified (100%).
• Australia have 35% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Denmark have 59% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Tunisia have 6% chances for qualifying into next round.