- Mexico and Germany are most likely to qualify for last-16.
- Mexico and Sweden have realistic chances to qualify.
- Germany and Sweden qualification for last-16, is a possible scenario.
- South Korea is almost eliminated and hanging on a thread
Mexico is currently at the top of the table with 6 points. Germany and Sweden are with 3 points each and cannot be separated by Goal Difference or Goal Scored. South Korea is at bottom of the group and without a point.
Mexico and South Korea are at top and bottom of the table respectively. Since the group did not see any draw, all four teams have chances to qualify.
For Germany-Vs-South Korea match, odds placed for Germany, draw and South Korea are 1.20, 7.50 and 17.00 respectively. For Mexico-Vs-Sweden, odds for Mexico win, draw and Sweden win, are 2.40, 3.40 and 3.20 respectively.
For Germany and Sweden to qualify, they need a straight win. If they both win, that will result in a tie.
As per ‘Bet Belief’, Mexico and Germany have 65% chance to qualify together, followed by a scenario, when they(Mexico, Germany, Sweden) will have a tie with 6 points each. It has 25% chance to occur. The later is the only situation which might see elimination of Mexico. Bet-Belief considers people bias/opinion as per betting odds, while estimating chances for a team.
Mexico and Sweden have 10% chances to qualify together as per Bet-Belief. South Korea can have their chances to qualify into last-16, if they beat Germany and Mexico beat Sweden. Again Germany/Sweden/S.Korea will have a tie in this situation, with each having 3 points. As per belief, the chances are quite slim (2%).
If you remove the bias from the equation and consider all outcome in a game are equally likely, Mexico-Germany and Mexico-Sweden qualification will have equal chances. The chances to formation tie by trio at 6 points and 3 points are equal and 11% each.
FIFA has process in place, to follow in case tie in Group stage occur. With following steps, the teams can be distinctly ranked in case of tie.
HOW THE TEAMS WILL BE RANKED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE GROUPS
1. Points obtained in all group matches
2. Goal difference in all group matches
3. Goals scored in all group matches
4. Points obtained in matches between tied teams
5. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
6. Goals scored in matches between tied teams
7. Fair play points system where the team with the most minus points finishing lower
The fair play points are calculated as follows: yellow card (-1), indirect red through second yellow (-3), straight red card (-4). This is most likely only to come into play in two-team ties and even then is unlikely – but will be used if England and Belgium draw tonight.
8. Drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee