Prediction – Group A, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group A

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
Ecuador	2	1	1	0	3	1	2	4
Netherlands	2	1	1	0	3	1	2	4
Senegal	2	1	0	1	3	3	0	3
Qatar	2	0	0	2	1	5	−4	0

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Ecuador	Senegal

Match 2
Netherlands	Qatar

Ecuador vs Senegal – Odds and Probabilities

	Ecuador to win	Draw	Senegal to win
Odds	2.37	3.20	3.25
Probability (%)	40	30	30

Preview

Netherlands vs Qatar – Odds and Probabilities

	Netherlands to win	Draw	Qatar to win
Odds	1.22	6.50	12.00
Probability (%)	79	15	8

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group A matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Ecuador, Netherlands	32%
2	Ecuador, Netherlands	24%
3	Senegal, Netherlands	23%
4	Ecuador, Netherlands	6%
5	Ecuador, Netherlands	4%
6	Senegal, Netherlands	4%
7	Ecuador, Netherlands	3%
8	Ecuador & Senegal/Netherlands	2%, Netherlands ahead with better goal differences (0/2)
9	Senegal & Ecuador/Netherlands	2%, Both have same Goal differences (2/2)

Conclusion

• Qatar have no chances for knock-out stage qualification
• Netherlands have 98% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Ecuador have 72% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Senegal have 30% chances for qualifying into next round.