- Japan, Colombia and Senegal, all have realistic chances to qualify in last-16
- Japan and Senegal, both need a draw to qualify in round of 16
- Poland is already eliminated and will face Japan in last group league match
- FIFA has put in place seven tie-breakers for distinct ranking of four teams in a group
Japan and Senegal are at the top of the group-H with 4 points each. They have same Goal Difference and both scored 4 goals each. Colombia is at third position with 3 points. Poland is yet to earn a point.
For Poland-Vs-Japan match, odds placed for Poland, draw and Japan are 2.90, 3.30 and 2.62 respectively. For Senegal-Vs-Colombia, odds for Senegal win, draw and Colombia win, are 4.60, 3.70 and 1.85 respectively.
As per Bet-Belief, Japan, Senegal and Colombia have 80%, 63% and 57% chances to qualify for the next round. Bet-Believe considers people bias/opinion as per betting odds, while estimating chances for a team.
If Poland and Colombia win, Japan and Senegal will have a tie at 4 points each.
FIFA has process in place, to follow in case tie in Group stage occur. With following steps, the teams can be distinctly ranked in case of tie.
HOW THE TEAMS WILL BE RANKED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE GROUPS
1. Points obtained in all group matches
2. Goal difference in all group matches
3. Goals scored in all group matches
4. Points obtained in matches between tied teams
5. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
6. Goals scored in matches between tied teams
7. Fair play points system where the team with the most minus points finishing lower
The fair play points are calculated as follows: yellow card (-1), indirect red through second yellow (-3), straight red card (-4). This is most likely only to come into play in two-team ties and even then is unlikely – but will be used if England and Belgium draw tonight.
8. Drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee