Joshua Bull, a mathematician from England’s Oxford University, has carried out research that has placed the South American giants as the winners of the tournament despite several predictions installing Lionel Messi‘s Argentina and defending champions France as the favourites to win the trophy.
Bull created the Oxford Mathematics 2022 World Cup predictor by honing in on the facts, applying his modelling skills, and adding a pinch of the assumptions that inform modelling.
The mathematician started his prediction in the group stage, where he predicted that Argentina, the Netherlands, Spain, England, France, Belgium, Portugal and Brazil would finish top of their respective groups. Ecuador, Mexico, Iran, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Croatia, and Uruguay were expected to come second in their group.
Bull’s prediction gives Argentina a 56.5% chance of beating the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, while Brazil holds a 58.5% chance of winning over Spain. Similarly, defending champions France have a 55.7% of triumphing over England, while Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal are expected to lose the tight battle against Belgium in the quarterfinal.
According to the projections, Argentina, Brazil, France, and Belgium will qualify for the semifinals in Qatar. Still, Brazil will triumph, as they will despatch Argentina before defeating Belgium in the finals.
Bull’s projection says that Belgium wi eliminate France in the semifinals but that Brazil will be too strong for the Red Devils in the final.
The five-time World Cup champions, led by Neymar, have a solid chance against Belgium in the finals, with a 61.3% likelihood of winning the FIFA World Cup 2022.
Meanwhile, Argentina have already begun their World Cup campaign on a losing note, with Saudi Arabia inflicting an embarrassing 2-1 loss on them.
France, meanwhile, came from behind to beat Australia 4-1 in their opening game.