Prediction – Group B, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group B

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
England	2	1	1	0	6	2	4	4
Iran	2	1	0	1	4	6	−2	3
USA	2	0	2	0	1	1	0	2
Wales	2	0	1	1	1	3	−2	1

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Iran	USA

Match 2
Wales	England

Iran vs USA – Odds and Probabilities

	Iran  to win	Draw	USA to win
Odds	4	3.5	1.95
Probability (%)	24	27	49

Preview

Wales vs England – Odds and Probabilities

	Wales to win	Draw	England to win
Odds	7.5	4.33	1.44
Probability (%)	13	22	66

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group A matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Iran, Wales/England	3%, England qualification is more probable
2	Iran, Wales/England	3%, England qualification is more probable
3	Iran, Wales/England	5%, England qualification is more probable
4	Iran, England	5%
5	Iran, England	6%
6	USA, England	11%
7	Iran, England	16%
8	Iran, England	19%
9	USA, England	32%

Conclusion

• All, apart from Wales have reasonable chances to qualify.
• Wales can qualify if they win by a margin of 4 goals.
• Iran have 57% chances for qualifying into next round.
• England have >99% chances for qualifying into next round.
• USA have 43% chances for qualifying into next round.