Prediction – Group F, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Romelu Lukaku forward of Belgium celebrates scoring
Romelu Lukaku forward of Belgium celebrates scoring

Table – Group F

 PlayedWinDrawLossGFGAGDPoints
Croatia21104134
Morocco21102024
Belgium210112−13
Canada200215−40

Last Two Matches

Match 1
CroatiaBelgium
Match 2
CanadaMorocco

Croatia vs Belgium – Odds and Probabilities

Croatia to winDrawBelgium to win
Odds2.623.42.62
Probability (%) 362836

Preview

Canada vs Morocco – Odds and Probabilities

Canada to winDrawMorocco to win
Odds3.53.42.1
Probability (%) 272845

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group F matches

Prediction – Group F, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022 World Cup

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

  1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
    • Win: 3 points;
    • Draw: 1 point;
    • Loss: 0 points;
  2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
  3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
  4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
  5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
  6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
  7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
    • Yellow card: −1 point;
    • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
    • Direct red card: −4 points;
    • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
  8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

ScenarioQualifiers% Chances/Comments
1Croatia, Morocco9%
2Croatia, Belgium/Morocco7%
3Belgium, Croatia/Morocco10%
4Croatia, Morocco10%
5Croatia, Morocco8% 
6Belgium, Morocco10%
7Croatia, Morocco16%
8Croatia, Morocco13%
9Belgium, Morocco17% 

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

  • Apart from Canada, other three teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
  • Croatia have 65% chances for qualifying into next round.
  • Morocco have 94% chances for qualifying into next round.
  • Belgium have 41% chances for qualifying into next round.