The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:
Points obtained in all group matches:
Win: 3 points;
Draw: 1 point;
Loss: 0 points;
Goal Difference after all group matches;
Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match):
Yellow card: −1 point;
Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
Direct red card: −4 points;
Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
Drawing of lots.
What happen during each scenarios
Scenario
Qualifiers
% Chances/Comments
1
Croatia, Morocco
9%
2
Croatia, Belgium/Morocco
7%
3
Belgium, Croatia/Morocco
10%
4
Croatia, Morocco
10%
5
Croatia, Morocco
8%
6
Belgium, Morocco
10%
7
Croatia, Morocco
16%
8
Croatia, Morocco
13%
9
Belgium, Morocco
17%
Assumption
When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.
Conclusion
Apart from Canada, other three teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
Croatia have 65% chances for qualifying into next round.
Morocco have 94% chances for qualifying into next round.
Belgium have 41% chances for qualifying into next round.
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