Prediction – Group F, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group F

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
Croatia	2	1	1	0	4	1	3	4
Morocco	2	1	1	0	2	0	2	4
Belgium	2	1	0	1	1	2	−1	3
Canada	2	0	0	2	1	5	−4	0

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Croatia	Belgium

Match 2
Canada	Morocco

Croatia vs Belgium – Odds and Probabilities

	Croatia to win	Draw	Belgium to win
Odds	2.62	3.4	2.62
Probability (%)	36	28	36

Preview

Canada vs Morocco – Odds and Probabilities

	Canada to win	Draw	Morocco to win
Odds	3.5	3.4	2.1
Probability (%)	27	28	45

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group F matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Croatia, Morocco	9%
2	Croatia, Belgium/Morocco	7%
3	Belgium, Croatia/Morocco	10%
4	Croatia, Morocco	10%
5	Croatia, Morocco	8%
6	Belgium, Morocco	10%
7	Croatia, Morocco	16%
8	Croatia, Morocco	13%
9	Belgium, Morocco	17%

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

• Apart from Canada, other three teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
• Croatia have 65% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Morocco have 94% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Belgium have 41% chances for qualifying into next round.