Prediction – Group E, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group E

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
Spain	2	1	1	0	8	1	7	4
Japan	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3
Costa Rica	2	1	0	1	1	7	−6	3
Germany	2	0	1	1	2	3	−1	1

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Japan	Spain

Match 2
Costa Rica	Germany

Japan vs Spain – Odds and Probabilities

	Japan to win	Draw	Spain to win
Odds	9	4.75	1.36
Probability (%)	11	20	70

Preview

Costa Rica vs Germany – Odds and Probabilities

	Costa Rica to win	Draw	Germany to win
Odds	19	10	1.11
Probability (%)	5	9	86

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group E matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Japan, Costa Rica	>0% (very slim chances though possible)
2	Spain, Costa Rica	1%
3	Spain, Costa Rica	3%
4	Japan, Spain/Costa Rica	1%
5	Spain, Japan/Costa Rica	2%
6	Spain, Costa Rica	6%
7	Japan, Spain/Germany	10%
8	Spain, Japan/Germany	18%
9	Spain, Germany	58%

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

• All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
• Japan have 22% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Costa Rica have 12% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Spain have 93% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Germany have 73% chances for qualifying into next round.