Serie A Prediction: Atalanta, Milan, Napoli and Juventus to battle for Champions League qualifications

Serie A, 2020-21, WILL CONCLUDE WITH MATCHDAY 38 ON SUNDAY. Atalanta, Milan, Napoli and Juventus are going to battle for Champions League qualifications. THIS ARTICLE WILL TRY TO PREDICT THE OUTCOMES OF THE MATCHES, AND HENCE THE TEAMS AND THEIR QUALIFICATION CHANCES.

AC MIlan-Juventus-Napoli-Atalanta-Serie A
AC MIlan-Juventus-Napoli-Atalanta-Serie A

Serie A Champions Inter Milan have already qualified into UEFA Champions League in for next season.

The next three spots for Champions league are up for grab and any three teams from Atalanta, Milan, Napoli and Juventus can qualify, finishing in top four in Serie A points table.

1Internazionale (C, Q)*37273845088
2Atalanta **37235904578
3AC Milan **37237723176
4Napoli **37249854576
5Juventus **37226733675
6Lazio ***37211161868
10Hellas Verona37111545−244
Serie A Table 2020-21 after Matchday 37 – Top half
* Inter Milan are Serie A Champions for 2020-21 season and hence, qualified for UCL. No other teams are secure to qualify in Champions League.

** Any three from Atalanta, Milan, Napoli and Juventus could finish in next three positions, depending on Matchday 38 outcomes. 

*** The team finishing fifth in the table among Atalanta, Milan, Napoli and Juventus, will qualify for UEFA Europa League, along with Lazio.

Betting Odds for Match Results

Match 1AtalantaAC Milan2.374.202.50
Match 2NapoliVerona1.187.5013.00
Match 3JuventusBologna1.227.0010.50
Betting Odds from Bet365

Percentage of chances for Match Results

Match 1AtalantaAC Milan39.8022.4637.73
Match 2NapoliVerona80.1212.617.27
Match 3JuventusBologna77.4913.519.00
Percentage of chances of Match Outcomes

Prediction for Champions League and Europa League qualifications – Serie A 2020-21

  1. Only Inter Milan have already qualified for UEFA Champions League next Season.
  2. Next three spots for Champions League, are for teams which end up holding 2nd, 3rd and 4th spot in Serie A table. AtalantaMilan, Napoli and Juventus are in contention for UCL qualification (First four teams in the table qualify for Champions League)
  3. One of the teams from “Second Point” will finish fifth in Serie A table, and hence qualify for UEFA Europa League. Lazio have also qualified for Europa League, irrespective of Matchday 38 outcome.
  4. There are exhaustive 27 situations or combination of results, that will decide which teams are going to finish in top four.
  5. Napoli have least chances to miss out the UEFA Champions League. Its 11.5%. There are 5 scenarios where Napoli could finish as fifth team in Serie A.
  6. Juventus have 22.5% chances to miss out the UEFA Champions League. There are 18 scenarios which could could lead in Juventus finishing fifth.
  7. Atalanta have 23.4% chances to miss out the UEFA Champions League. There is only 1 scenario where they could finish fifth.
  8. AC Milan have 42.5% chances to miss out the UEFA Champions League. There are only 3 scenario where they could finish fifth.
  9. So, in other words, Atalanta, AC Milan, Napoli and Juventus have 26, 24, 22 and 9 scenarios respectively, suggesting they would qualify for UCL.
  10. If you consider probabilities to qualify UCL, Napoli (88.5%), Juventus (77.5%), Atalanta (76.4%), AC Milan (57.5%) are in defending order to qualify.

Following table depicts 27 exhaustive scenarios, Accumulation of points for four teams during current Serie A season,

Rules for classification:

If two or more teams end up with same points, then the Rule says that the teams will be separated as per following considerations (in that order).

1) Points; 2) Head-to-head points; 3) Head-to-head goal difference; 4) Goal difference; 5) Goals scored; 6) Draw.

Three matches – 27 Exhaustive Scenarios – Points Table – Percentage Chances

Match-1*Match-2*Match-3*Atalanta **Milan **Napoli **Juventus **UCL***UEL***%Chances
AtalantaNapoliJuventus81767978Atalanta, Napoli, JuventusMilan24.71
AtalantaNapoliDraw81767976Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus4.31
AtalantaNapoliBologna81767975Atalanta, Milan, NapoliJuventus2.87
AtalantaDrawJuventus81767778Atalanta, Napoli, JuventusMilan3.89
AtalantaDrawDraw81767776Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.68
AtalantaDrawBologna81767775Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.45
AtalantaVeronaJuventus81767678Atalanta, Juventus, MilanNapoli2.24
AtalantaVeronaDraw81767676Atalanta, Milan, NapoliJuventus0.39
AtalantaVeronaBologna81767675Atalanta, Milan, NapoliJuventus0.26
DrawNapoliJuventus79777978Atalanta, Napoli, JuventusMilan13.95
DrawNapoliDraw79777976Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus2.43
DrawNapoliBologna79777975Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus1.62
DrawDrawJuventus79777778Atalanta, Juventus, MilanNapoli2.19
DrawDrawDraw79777776Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.38
DrawDrawBologna79777775Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.25
DrawVeronaJuventus79777678Atalanta, Juventus, MilanNapoli1.27
DrawVeronaDraw79777676Atalanta, Milan, NapoliJuventus0.22
DrawVeronaBologna79777675Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.15
AC MilanNapoliJuventus78797978Napoli, Milan, JuventusAtalanta23.43
AC MilanNapoliDraw78797976Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus4.08
AC MilanNapoliBologna78797975Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus2.72
AC MilanDrawJuventus78797778Atalanta, Milan, JuventusNapoli3.69
AC MilanDrawDraw78797776Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.64
AC MilanDrawBologna78797775Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.43
AC MilanVeronaJuventus78797678Atalanta, Juventus, MilanNapoli2.13
AC MilanVeronaDraw78797676Atalanta, Milan, NapoliJuventus0.37
AC MilanVeronaBologna78797675Atalanta, Napoli, MilanJuventus0.25
* Winner of Match 1, Match 2, Match 3 

** Points that Teams Atalanta, AC Milan, Napoli and Juventus will end up in the Serie A table. 27 rows in the table indicates all of 81 different set of outcomes and the final points for respective teams in Serie A. 

*** UCL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Champions League after finishing the season with 2nd, 3rd and 4th position in the table. UEL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Europa League after finishing the season with 5th position in the table. 

"%Chances" are providing Chances of outcomes for all exhaustive 27 scenarios.