Champions League, Group-H Prediction: Ajax, Chelsea, Valencia can qualify

In Group H of UEFA Champions League, Ajax, Chelsea, Valencia and Lille competed against each other. With one match pending for each of the team, it is evident that only Ajax, Chelsea and Valencia are in contest and Lille can not qualify into next round.

Points Table

Following table shows Group H situation after each team have played five matches.

Champions League, Group-H Prediction: Ajax, Chelsea, Valencia can qualify European Leagues Preview/Analysis UEFA Champions League

Prediction for Group H

Following table provide points tally after all matches been played in Group H, and shows Group H winners considering all scenarios.

How the table to be interpreted

There might be 9 exhaustive situation after last two matches are played.
Considering all scenario, points table are computed
Two different concepts are considered. First one involving ‘Bet Belief’, which considers Betting odds for last two matches for probability of win/draw/loss. Second one, considers ‘equal chances’, i.e. there is equal chances for a team to win(33.33%), or draw(33.33%) or loss (33.33%). The second one is far from practical as it does not consider special weightage for a stronger team.

Qualification Chances

Group H Winners	Bet Belief	Equal Chances
Ajax and Chelsea	72%	33.33%
Ajax and Chelsea/Valencia*	7%	22.22%
Chelsea and Valencia	16%	11.11%
Ajax and Valencia	5%	33.33%

*Note- Qualification Rules are to be applied to break ties between Chelsea and Valencia, if Situation 5 or Situation 7 arises.

Conclusions

Ajax are likely to qualify, have 84% chance for qualification as per “Bet Belief”
Chelsea have 92% chances to qualify.
Ajax might be eliminated in ‘Situation 3’, which is 16% probable as per “Bet Belief”
Valencia have 24% chances to qualify.
In Situation 6, 8 and 9, Chelsea will not qualify. But odds are heavily favouring London team to win against Lille.

Qualification Rules

If two or more teams are equal on points, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:

Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head results).
Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head goal difference).
Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head goals scored).
Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head away goals).
Superior goal difference from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of away goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher number of away wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Lower number of disciplinary points received from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
Higher UEFA Club Coefficient.