Prediction for UEFA Champions League winner: Data Analytics vs Betting Odds

Javi Martinez hands Bayern Munich a parting gift with winning goal in 2-1 Super Cup victory

As three of the UEFA Champions League (2020-21 edition) group league matches have already completed, fans are fancying their favourite team’s chances of winning the tournament.

Here, we have compared predictions from two different sources.

Data Analytics

The data analysts from FiveThirtyEight have predicted the winners of the Champions League.

The group stage games of the Champions League 2020/21 season are under full swing, and we have already witnessed some exciting encounters.

Amidst this, data analysts from FiveThirtyEight have predicted the teams with higher chances of winning the title. They have also ranked the possible winners of their respective groups, and the chances of each of the teams reaching different stages in the competition.

As per the data, Bayern Munich have higher possibilities of retaining the title with 26%. The Bavarians have been at their unstoppable best this season. They have already beaten the likes of Atletico Madrid, Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow in the group and are currently topping the group A after Matchday 3.

Following Bayern Munich are Barcelona (17 %), Manchester City (10%) and Liverpool (7%)

Barcelona are off to a flying start in UCL this season, winning all the games so far. The most important victory was against Juventus at their home, beating them 2-0. It will be interesting to see how the Catalans would progress under Ronald Koeman in the competition this season.

Premier League giants Manchester City and Liverpool are also looking in a good rhythm as well, after winning all of their respective games so far.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid and PSG are ranked slightly lower because of their poor starts. Here are the teams with higher chances of winning the Champions League.

Betting Odds

As per betting odds, the probabilities or chances of teams winning this edition of UEFA Champions League remain same, with few deviations.

The main difference between two methods are

  • FiveThirtyEight analysis is solely based upon data, and how teams have performed in first three group league matches, i.e. till today.
  • chances are derived from betting odds, which is again based upon human opinion about the team’s chances as per their current performance and reputation.

Bayern Munich and Manchester City are two most probable teams as per both the methodologies.

Liverpool and Juventus have more pessimistic chances, as per FiveThirtyEight as compared to Bet365, but Barcelona were considered more favourably.

Comparison of UCL Winning Chances

TeamPoints*Chances (FiveThirtyEight)Chances (Bet365)
Bayern Munich926%26.8
Manchester City917%16.4
Borussia Dortmund66%2.6
 Real Madrid45%4.6
Paris Saint-Germain34%5.3
Atletico Madrid44%2.9
RB Leipzig63%1.5
Manchester United63%2.6
 Inter Milan22%1.8
 Borussia Monchengladbach51%0.7
RB Salzburg1<1%0.1
* Points as on 6-November-2020, after three group league matches are completed.