Prediction – Group G, Knockout Stage Qualification, FIFA World Cup 2022

Table – Group G

	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	GF	GA	GD	Points
Brazil	2	2	0	0	3	0	3	6
Switzerland	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3
Serbia	2	0	1	1	3	5	−2	1
Cameroon	2	0	1	1	3	4	−1	1

Last Two Matches

Match 1
Serbia	Switzerland

Match 2
Cameroon	Brazil

Serbia vs Switzerland – Odds and Probabilities

	Serbia to win	Draw	Switzerland to win
Odds	2.62	3.25	2.80
Probability (%)	38	29	33

Preview

Cameroon vs Brazil – Odds and Probabilities

	Cameroon to win	Draw	Brazil to win
Odds	8	5	1.36
Probability (%)	9	16	75

Preview

9 Scenarios from last two Group G matches

Group Ranking

The ranking of teams in the group stage to be determined as follows:

1. Points obtained in all group matches: 
   • Win: 3 points;
   • Draw: 1 point;
   • Loss: 0 points;
2. Goal Difference after all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all three group matches;
4. Points obtained in the match played between the concerned teams;
5. Goal difference in the match played between the concerned teams;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the concerned teams;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one deduction can be applied to a player in a single match): 
   • Yellow card: −1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points;
   • Direct red card: −4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points;
8. Drawing of lots.

What happen during each scenarios

Scenario	Qualifiers	% Chances/Comments
1	Brazil, Serbia/Cameroon	3%
2	Brazil, Switzerland/Cameroon	2%
3	Brazil, Switzerland	3%
4	Brazil, Serbia	6%
5	Brazil, Switzerland	5%
6	Brazil, Switzerland	5%
7	Brazil, Serbia	29%
8	Brazil, Switzerland	22%
9	Brazil, Switzerland	25%

Assumption

When two teams end with same points, the chances to qualify may differ because of their current goal-differences. But for simplicity, we split the chances equally between two teams.

Conclusion

• All the teams have reasonable chances to qualify.
• Brazil have already qualified (100%).
• Cameroon have very slim chances (2%).
• Switzerland have 61% chances for qualifying into next round.
• Serbia have 37% chances for qualifying into next round.