Premier League 2020-21, Champions League and Europa League qualifications – Prediction

Premier League is poised for a blockbuster end as Matchday 38 will decide the participant for European Competitions (UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League) as well as, it will have a bit impact on the relegation situation.

Here, we will try to predict the chances for the teams who are in contention for these qualification.

Premier League Table 2020-21 after Matchday 37

#	Team	M	W	L	GF	GD	PT
1	Manchester City (C, Q)*	37	26	6	78	46	83
2	Manchester United (Q)*	37	20	6	71	28	71
3	Chelsea (X)**	37	19	8	57	23	67
4	Liverpool (X)**	37	19	9	66	24	66
5	Leicester City (X)**	37	20	11	66	20	66
6	West Ham United (?)***	37	18	11	59	12	62
7	Tottenham Hotspur (?)***	37	17	12	64	21	59
8	Everton	37	17	12	47	4	59
9	Arsenal	37	17	13	53	14	58
10	Leeds United	37	17	15	59	6	56

* Manchester City are Premier League Champions for 2020-21 season and hence, qualified for UCL. Similarly Manchester United will finish second irrespective of Matchday 38 outcomes.
** Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City will finish in next three positions, depending on Matchday 38 outcomes.
*** Matchday 38 will also decide the sixth team. West Ham and Tottenham are fighting for this spot.

Betting Odds for Match Results

	Team1	Team2	Team1	X	Team2
Match 1	Chelsea	Aston Villa	1.45	4.60	6.50
Match 2	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	1.14	8.50	15.00
Match 3	Leicester City	Tottenham	2.20	4.00	3.30
Match 4	West Ham	Southampton	1.65	4.00	5.00

Percentage of chances for Match Results

	Team1	Team2	Team1	X	Team2
Match 1	Chelsea	Aston Villa	65.01	20.49	14.50
Match 2	Liverpool	Crystal Palace	82.64	11.08	6.28
Match 3	Leicester City	Tottenham	45.11	24.81	30.08
Match 4	West Ham	Southampton	57.39	23.67	18.94

Prediction for Champions League and Europa League qualifications – Premier League 2020-21

1. Manchester City and Manchester United have already qualified for UEFA Champions League next Season
2. Next two spots for Champions League, are for teams which end up holding 3rd and 4th spot in Premier League table. Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester City are in contention for UCL qualification (First four teams in the table qualify for Champions League)
3. One of the teams from “Second Point” will finish fifth in Premier League table, and hence qualify for UEFA Europa League.
4. One of West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur will finish sixth to claim the second spot for UEFA Europa League. (Fifth and Sixth in the table qualify for Europa League).
5. Chelsea have 86% chances to finish in top four, so there are 14% chances that they will end up in Europa League.
6. Similary, Liverpool have 91% chances to finish in top four, so there are 9% chances that they will end up in Europa League. This is little awkward, as Reds are places below Chelsea currently. But this chances is because of their better odds against Crystal Palace on Matchday 38.
7. Leicester City have 23% chances to finish in top four, so there are 77% chances that they will end up in Europa League.
8. Tottenham Hotspur have very slim chances to qualify, which is 5%. Otherwise, West Ham United are qualifying for Europa League as sixth team in EPL table. Hammers have 95% chances to qualify.

Four matches – 81 Exhaustive Scenarios – Points Table – Percentage Chances

Match 1*	Match 2*	Match 3*	Match 4*	Blues**	Reds**	Foxes**	Hammers**	Spurs**	UCL***	UEL***	%Chances
Chelsea	Liverpool	Leicester	West Ham	70	69	69	65	59	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	13.91
Chelsea	Liverpool	Leicester	Draw	70	69	69	63	59	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	5.74
Chelsea	Liverpool	Leicester	Southampton	70	69	69	62	59	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	4.59
Chelsea	Liverpool	Draw	West Ham	70	69	67	65	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	7.65
Chelsea	Liverpool	Draw	Draw	70	69	67	63	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	3.15
Chelsea	Liverpool	Draw	Southampton	70	69	67	62	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	2.52
Chelsea	Liverpool	Tottenham	West Ham	70	69	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	9.27
Chelsea	Liverpool	Tottenham	Draw	70	69	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	3.83
Chelsea	Liverpool	Tottenham	Southampton	70	69	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	3.06
Chelsea	Draw	Leicester	West Ham	70	67	69	65	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	1.86
Chelsea	Draw	Leicester	Draw	70	67	69	63	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.77
Chelsea	Draw	Leicester	Southampton	70	67	69	62	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.62
Chelsea	Draw	Draw	West Ham	70	67	67	65	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	1.03
Chelsea	Draw	Draw	Draw	70	67	69	62	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.42
Chelsea	Draw	Draw	Southampton	70	67	67	62	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.34
Chelsea	Draw	Tottenham	West Ham	70	67	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	1.24
Chelsea	Draw	Tottenham	Draw	70	67	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.51
Chelsea	Draw	Tottenham	Southampton	70	67	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	0.41
Chelsea	CP	Leicester	West Ham	70	66	69	65	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	1.06
Chelsea	CP	Leicester	Draw	70	66	69	63	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.44
Chelsea	CP	Leicester	Southampton	70	66	69	62	59	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.35
Chelsea	CP	Draw	West Ham	70	66	67	65	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.58
Chelsea	CP	Draw	Draw	70	66	67	63	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.24
Chelsea	CP	Draw	Southampton	70	66	67	62	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.19
Chelsea	CP	Tottenham	West Ham	70	66	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.70
Chelsea	CP	Tottenham	Draw	70	66	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.29
Chelsea	CP	Tottenham	Southampton	70	66	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	0.23
Draw	Liverpool	Leicester	West Ham	68	69	69	65	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	4.38
Draw	Liverpool	Leicester	Draw	68	69	69	63	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	1.81
Draw	Liverpool	Leicester	Southampton	68	69	69	62	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	1.45
Draw	Liverpool	Draw	West Ham	68	69	67	65	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	2.41
Draw	Liverpool	Draw	Draw	68	69	67	63	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.99
Draw	Liverpool	Draw	Southampton	68	69	67	62	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.80
Draw	Liverpool	Tottenham	West Ham	68	69	66	65	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	2.92
Draw	Liverpool	Tottenham	Draw	68	69	66	63	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	1.21
Draw	Liverpool	Tottenham	Southampton	68	69	66	62	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Spurs	0.96
Draw	Draw	Leicester	West Ham	68	67	69	65	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.59
Draw	Draw	Leicester	Draw	68	67	69	63	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.24
Draw	Draw	Leicester	Southampton	68	67	69	62	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.19
Draw	Draw	Draw	West Ham	68	67	67	65	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.32
Draw	Draw	Draw	Draw	68	67	67	63	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.13
Draw	Draw	Draw	Southampton	68	67	67	62	60	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.11
Draw	Draw	Tottenham	West Ham	68	67	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.39
Draw	Draw	Tottenham	Draw	68	67	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.16
Draw	Draw	Tottenham	Southampton	68	67	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	0.13
Draw	CP	Leicester	West Ham	68	66	69	65	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.33
Draw	CP	Leicester	Draw	68	66	69	63	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.14
Draw	CP	Leicester	Southampton	68	66	69	62	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.11
Draw	CP	Draw	West Ham	68	66	67	65	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.18
Draw	CP	Draw	Draw	68	66	67	63	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.08
Draw	CP	Draw	Southampton	68	66	67	62	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.06
Draw	CP	Tottenham	West Ham	68	66	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.22
Draw	CP	Tottenham	Draw	68	66	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.09
Draw	CP	Tottenham	Southampton	68	66	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	0.07
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Leicester	West Ham	67	69	69	65	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	3.10
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Leicester	Draw	67	69	69	63	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	1.28
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Leicester	Southampton	67	69	69	62	59	Reds, Foxes	Blues, Hammers	1.02
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Draw	West Ham	67	69	67	65	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	1.71
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Draw	Draw	67	69	67	63	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.70
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Draw	Southampton	67	69	67	62	60	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.56
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Tottenham	West Ham	67	69	66	65	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	2.07
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Tottenham	Draw	67	69	66	63	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.85
Aston Villa	Liverpool	Tottenham	Southampton	67	69	66	62	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Spurs	0.68
Aston Villa	Draw	Leicester	West Ham	67	67	69	65	59	Foxes, Reds	Blues, Hammers	0.42
Aston Villa	Draw	Leicester	Draw	67	67	69	63	59	Foxes, Reds	Blues, Hammers	0.17
Aston Villa	Draw	Leicester	Southampton	67	67	69	62	59	Foxes, Reds	Blues, Hammers	0.14
Aston Villa	Draw	Draw	West Ham	67	67	67	65	60	Reds, Blues/Foxes	Foxes/Blues, Hammers	0.23
Aston Villa	Draw	Draw	Draw	67	67	67	63	60	Reds, Blues/Foxes	Foxes/Blues, Hammers	0.09
Aston Villa	Draw	Draw	Southampton	67	67	67	62	60	Reds, Blues/Foxes	Foxes/Blues, Hammers	0.08
Aston Villa	Draw	Tottenham	West Ham	67	67	66	65	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.28
Aston Villa	Draw	Tottenham	Draw	67	67	66	63	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Hammers	0.11
Aston Villa	Draw	Tottenham	Southampton	67	67	66	62	62	Reds, Blues	Foxes, Spurs	0.09
Aston Villa	CP	Leicester	West Ham	67	66	69	65	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.24
Aston Villa	CP	Leicester	Draw	67	66	69	63	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.10
Aston Villa	CP	Leicester	Southampton	67	66	69	62	59	Foxes, Blues	Reds, Hammers	0.08
Aston Villa	CP	Draw	West Ham	67	66	67	65	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.13
Aston Villa	CP	Draw	Draw	67	66	67	63	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.05
Aston Villa	CP	Draw	Southampton	67	66	67	62	60	Blues, Foxes	Reds, Hammers	0.04
Aston Villa	CP	Tottenham	West Ham	67	66	66	65	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.16
Aston Villa	CP	Tottenham	Draw	67	66	66	63	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Hammers	0.06
Aston Villa	CP	Tottenham	Southampton	67	66	66	62	62	Blues, Reds	Foxes, Spurs	0.05

* Winner of Match 1, Match 2, Match 3, Match 4

** Points that Teams Chelsea (Blues), Liverpool (Reds), Leicester City (Foxes), West Ham United (Hammer) and Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) will end up in the Premier League table. 81 rows in the table indicates all of 81 different set of outcomes and the final points for respective teams in Premier League.

*** UCL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Champions League after finishing the season with 3rd and 4th position in the table. UEL provides teams those qualify for UEFA Europa League after finishing the season with 5th and 6th position in the table.

"%Chances" are providing Chances of outcomes for all exhaustive 81 scenarios.