UEFA Champions League: Chance of Winning for teams after first-leg

How winning outright probabilities of UEFA Champions League for 16 teams in contention, were changed after the first leg match - with some expected and some unexpected results.

Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid

First-leg Result, Liverpool : Atletico Madrid :: 0:1

Venue: Anfield

Betting Odds –

Liverpool : Atletico Madrid :: 1.55:3.90: 6.50

Probability of Winning

Liverpool : Draw : Atletico Madrid :: 61% : 24% : 15%

Liverpool were one of the favourites to win the championship, before the first leg of round-of-16. But their shocking loss against Atletico Madrid at Wanda Metropolitano changed not only the perception about Liverpool, but the loss also shook their confidence. Reds subsequent result in Premier League validates the same. Even though very few would bet on Atletico, winning against Liverpool at Anfield, Diego Simeone’s men have nothing to lose. They would be more intense than the first leg to make a UEFA Champions League upset. They have Joao Felix and Diego Costa back in the squad, that would provide them options. Heavy odds in favour of Liverpool indicates their invincibility at Anfield – nobody has forgotten how they overturned three goals deficit against Barcelona to make the greatest comeback in UCL history last year.

Barcelona vs Napoli

First-leg Result, Barcelona : Napoli:: 1:1

Venue: Camp Nou

Betting Odds –

Barcelona : Napoli :: 1.55:3.90: 6.50

Probability of Winning

Barcelona : Draw : Napoli :: 61% : 24% : 15%

Every-year, Barcelona have been favourite to win UCL. They last won this trophy in 2015. Perhaps this year they have weakest team as compared to previous year. But they have Lionel Messi and Antonio Griezmann. But under new manager, they look more uncertain. Perhaps they need a complete overhaul to certain section of the team if not a complete overhaul. Can Quique Setién inspire this team for greater glory or impose those bitter changes!!!

UEFA Champions League Winner- Changes in odds

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* Rank as Most probable UCL winner after first-leg (Rank as Most probable UCL winner before first-leg)