UEFA Champions League: Chance of Winning for teams after first-leg

How winning outright probabilities of UEFA Champions League for 16 teams in contention, were changed after the first leg match - with some expected and some unexpected results.

UEFA Champions League - Change in Betting Odds after first-leg
UEFA Champions League - Change in Betting Odds after first-leg

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

First-leg Result, Manchester City:Real Madrid :: 2:1

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Betting Odds –

Manchester City : Real Madrid :: 1.57 : 4.20 : 5.25

Probability of Winning

Manchester City : Draw : Real Madrid :: 59% : 22% : 19%

Manchester City are still, favourite to bookies, but a loss in the first leg at home has diminished Real Madrid’s chance to qualify for the quarter-final. To be eligible for next round Real Madrid have to win 2-0 or 3-1 (i.e. with a difference of two goals). Recent La Liga performance has also gone against to Madrid team. Heavy odds against Zidane’s team indicates, Real Madrid’s journey would end in Etihad Stadium, and they have to display their inconsistence brilliance once again in Manchester to prove bookies wrong.

Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea

First-leg Result, Bayern Munich : Chelsea :: 3:0

Venue: Allianz Arena

Betting Odds –

Bayern Munich : Chelsea :: 1.36 : 5.00 : 7.50

Probability of Winning

Bayern Munich : Draw : Chelsea :: 66% : 21% : 13%

Bayern Munich is one of the favourites to win UCL. Their own form, as well as some diminished display by few contenders, have boosted their chances. Chelsea have been in a transition this year under Frank Lampard. Bayern Munich thrashed the young and inexperienced team at Stamford Bridge. Since then Chelsea had change formation and brought back Pedro and Oliver Giroud from the deep fridge. But best of Blue’s performance may not be sufficient to overturn the situation in their favour in Munich. Chelsea are one of the 16 teams, which are least likely to win the tournament at this point. After the first leg match, Bayern moved as second favourite to win the championship, whereas Chelsea is now the team which are second least likely to win.

UEFA Champions League Winner- Changes in odds

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* Rank as Most probable UCL winner after first-leg (Rank as Most probable UCL winner before first-leg)